FXCN31 CWHX 010600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT 
SATURDAY 01 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.2 N AND LONGITUDE 63.1 W, ABOUT 320 NAUTICAL MILES OR 590
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS ( 194 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 957
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS ( 28 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 01  3.00 AM  27.2N  63.1W   957  105  194
OCT 01  3.00 PM  30.9N  62.9W   960  100  185
OCT 02  3.00 AM  35.5N  61.8W   964   95  176
OCT 02  3.00 PM  40.0N  60.3W   973   85  157
OCT 03  3.00 AM  44.8N  56.7W   978   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  3.00 PM  48.4N  48.5W   980   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  3.00 AM  51.2N  39.1W   985   50   93 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A CLEAR
AND WELL-DEFINED EYE, AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAIN IT AT
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY.  WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR TO 
OPHELIA'S SOUTH AND WEST, BUT TO THIS POINT IT HAS HAD LITTLE EFFECT 
ON THE STORM OR ITS INTENSITY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN AROUND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. LATEST FORECAST 
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO BETTER 
AGREE WITH OPHELIA'S CURRENT MOTION AS WELL AS RECENT MODEL TRACK 
CONSENSUS.  MEANWHILE, A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER 
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A LONG FRONTAL
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS WELL INTO THE TROPICS AND
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE FROM OPHELIA. THE 
TIMING AND PHASING OF THIS INTERACTION WILL BE CRITICAL IN 
DETERMINING OPHELIA'S EXACT TRACK BEAYOND THE 36-HOUR TIME FRAME AS 
WELL AS THE EXTENT OF ITS IMPACTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA.  EVEN WITHOUT 
OPHELIA, THIS FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW 
EASTWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS. THAT COULD CREATE 
A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PARTS OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND.

REGARDLESS, OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE 
APPOROACHING DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH TO THE WEST.  INCREASED SHEAR AND 
COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE 
STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE SHOWS OPHELIA 
WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT 
ENTERS CANADIAN OFFSHORE WATERS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
01/06Z  180 180  60  90    70  60  40  50    35  30  20  25
01/18Z  190 190  70  85    70  60  40  50    35  30  20  25
02/06Z  200 200  80  80    75  75  40  45    30  30  15  15
02/18Z  200 210  75  75    80  90  40  40    20  25  15  10
03/06Z  180 240  90  75    70  90  35  35    10  15   0   0
03/18Z  180 250 100  70    40  60  40  20     0   0   0   0
04/06Z  180 270 120  75    50  50  30   0     0   0   0   0

END/BORGEL