WOCN31 CWHX 011145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:47 AM ADT SATURDAY
1 OCTOBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      HURRICANE OPHELIA TRACKING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND - AFFECTS IN
      PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 28.5 NORTH 63.0 WEST.

ABOUT 415 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 195 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 30 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR CATEGORY-THREE INTENSITY FOR 
MUCH OF TODAY THEN PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE AN 
UNRELATED NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING 
INTO THE TROPICS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS WEEKEND.  OPHELIA AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL 
MONDAY MORNING.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S 
TRACK - RANGING FROM NOT FAR EAST OF CAPE BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE 
OVER THE GRAND BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND.

A. WIND.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CANADIAN 
MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IS APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H.
CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW 
AT 5-10%.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA FOR RAIN 
FROM THE STALLED NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

SOME FORECAST SCENARIOS INDICATE THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD 
TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND GIVING THE 
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND.  WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS ASPECT OF THE WEATHER 
SYSTEMS PARTICULARLY CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL FROM THEIR COMBINED EFFECTS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SURGE EFFECTS.  WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN 
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY.  OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO 
BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY.  INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE 
(10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.  DETAILS OF WAVE HEIGHTS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN OUR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GIVEN OPHELIA'S EXPECTED TRACK WILL BRING IT NEAR SOUTHEASTERN 
MARITIMES MARINE AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING, GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF EAST SCOTIAN
SLOPE.  STORM OR POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EFFECT THESE 
WATERS AS WELL AS THE GRAND BANKS EARLY MONDAY.

LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF OPHELIA'S TRACK 
AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS.  GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS 
OVER THE GRAND BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND.  MORE DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY