FXCN31 CWHX 011200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7.54 AM ADT 
SATURDAY 01 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 N AND LONGITUDE 63.0 W , ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES OR 415
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS ( 194 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 949
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 17 KNOTS ( 30 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 01  9.00 AM  28.5N  63.0W   949  105  194
OCT 01  9.00 PM  33.2N  62.5W   955  100  185
OCT 02  9.00 AM  37.8N  61.1W   961   90  167
OCT 02  9.00 PM  42.6N  58.7W   969   80  148
OCT 03  9.00 AM  46.6N  52.6W   975   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 PM  49.8N  43.8W   983   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  9.00 AM  52.6N  34.4W   987   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41049 LAST NIGHT WHICH 
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 951.9 MB, 
PRECEDED BY A 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 30 MB.  OPHELIA'S APPEARANCE
ON SATELLITE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYE, 
AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAIN IT AT CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY.  WATER 
VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR TO OPHELIA'S SOUTH AND WEST, BUT TO 
THIS POINT IT HAS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE STORM OR ITS INTENSITY. 
LAST EVENING'S ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FAIRLY INTENSE BUT COMPACT WIND 
FIELD AROUND OPHELIA, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIZE ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE, A
LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.  A LONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
LOW EXTENDS WELL INTO THE TROPICS AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAP 
INTO THE MOISTURE FROM OPHELIA. THE TIMING AND PHASING OF THIS 
INTERACTION WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING OPHELIA'S EXACT TRACK 
BEYOND THE 36-HOUR TIME FRAME AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF ITS IMPACTS
IN ATLANTIC CANADA.  EVEN WITHOUT OPHELIA, THIS FEATURE IS OF 
PARTICULAR INTEREST BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW EASTWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE 
FEED INTO THE TROPICS. THAT COULD CREATE A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP 
OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

REGARDLESS, OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE 
APPOROACHING DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH TO THE WEST.  INCREASED SHEAR AND 
COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
STORM AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS..BUT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS 
WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR OVER CANADIAN WATERS. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE 
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT OPHELIA SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO A 
POST-TROPICAL STORM DURING THAT PERIOD.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
01/12Z  185 185  65  85    70  60  40  50    35  30  20  25
02/00Z  195 195  75  80    70  65  40  45    30  30  15  20
02/12Z  200 205  75  75    75  80  40  40    25  25  15  10
03/00Z  190 225  80  75    75  90  35  35    15  20   5   5
03/12Z  180 245  95  70    55  75  35  25     5   5   0   0
04/00Z  180 260 110  70    45  55  35  10     0   0   0   0
04/12Z  180 280 130  80     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY