FXCN31 CWHX 011800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.25 PM ADT SATURDAY 01 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 N AND LONGITUDE 62.8 W , ABOUT 145 NAUTICAL MILES OR 270 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS ( 194 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 952 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 22 KNOTS ( 40 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 01 3.00 PM 30.5N 62.8W 952 105 194 OCT 01 9.00 PM 33.1N 62.5W 955 100 185 OCT 02 3.00 AM 35.5N 61.8W 958 95 176 OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.8N 61.1W 961 90 167 OCT 02 3.00 PM 40.2N 59.9W 963 85 157 OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.6N 58.7W 970 75 139 OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.6N 55.7W 977 70 130 OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.6N 52.6W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.00 PM 48.2N 48.2W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.8N 43.8W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 AM 51.2N 39.1W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYE, AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAIN IT AT CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY. THE WIND CIRCULATION IS VERY COMPACT BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER A LARGE WARM WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SO THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT TO THE WEST IS QUICKLY APPROACHING OPHELIA AND BRINGING ABOUT THE NORTHWARD ACELLERATION WE'VE SEEN TODAY. B. PROGNOSTIC THE GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE BEING DISCOUNTED IN OUR EVALUATION OWING TO A POOR ANALYSIS OF THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE COMPACT HURRICANE AT TIME-ZERO (12Z). THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND A LONG FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF IT. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. DETAILS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEARS IN THE GENERAL INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE WOCN31 CWHX HEADER. WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE TRACK WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT HAVE UPDATED THE INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES CANADIAN WATERS. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND). C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONS FROM AN ASCAT OVERPASS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF. TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 01/18Z 190 190 75 90 70 60 40 45 30 30 20 25 02/00Z 195 195 80 90 70 65 40 45 30 30 20 20 02/06Z 195 200 85 90 70 70 40 40 35 35 25 25 02/12Z 200 205 90 90 90 80 50 50 40 40 30 30 02/18Z 205 225 90 90 90 85 50 50 40 40 30 30 03/00Z 210 240 90 90 90 90 50 50 45 45 30 30 03/06Z 190 240 90 80 75 70 45 45 25 35 0 0 03/12Z 180 245 105 70 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 170 245 120 90 50 65 35 15 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 160 245 170 120 45 55 35 15 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 150 240 220 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY