WOCN31 CWHX 011856 CCA TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:56 PM ADT SATURDAY 1 OCTOBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT. CORRECTED BULLETIN - REPLACING 'MINUS' WITH 'METRES' IN SECTION 3. HURRICANE OPHELIA TRACKING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND - AFFECTS IN PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: NEAR 30.5 NORTH 62.8 WEST. ABOUT 270 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 195 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 40 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR CATEGORY-THREE INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AN UNRELATED NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OPHELIA AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - RANGING FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND TO 200 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE AVALON. A. WIND. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE IS APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR THESE REGIONS. CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW AT 5-10%. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA FOR RAIN FROM THE STALLED NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY GIVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 50 TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MILLIMETRES/HOUR. C. SURGE/WAVES. WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ESTABLISHING DETAILS OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF WAVE HEIGHTS, BUT 5-7 METRE WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND - FORTUNE BAY AND EAST. OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE (10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS BUT A FARTHER-NORTH TRACK WOULD NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WATER LEVELS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GIVEN OPHELIA'S EXPECTED TRACK BRINGS IT NEAR SOUTHEASTERN MARITIMES MARINE AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING, A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAURENTIAN FAN. STORM OR POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EFFECT THE FAN AND MOST LIKELY THE GRAND BANKS MONDAY. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT (SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER THE GRAND BANKS. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 METRES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS WILL BE ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/FOGARTY