WOCN31 CWHX 012345 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:41 PM ADT SATURDAY 1 OCTOBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT. HURRICANE OPHELIA TRACKING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND - AFFECTS IN PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: NEAR 32.8 NORTH 62.1 WEST. ABOUT 245 KILOMETRES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 195 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 45 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR CATEGORY-THREE INTENSITY INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UNRELATED NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OPHELIA AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - RANGING FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND TO 200 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE AVALON. A. WIND. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE AVALON, THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW AT 5-10%. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND IN RELATION TO THE RAIN FROM THE STALLED NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY GIVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 50 TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MILLIMETRES/HOUR. C. SURGE/WAVES. WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ESTABLISHING DETAILS OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF WAVE HEIGHTS, BUT A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 METRES IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND - FORTUNE BAY AND EAST. OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE (10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS BUT A FARTHER-NORTH TRACK WOULD NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WATER LEVELS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA'S EXPECTED TRACK BRINGS IT NEAR SOUTHEASTERN MARITIMES MARINE AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING, A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAURENTIAN FAN. STORM OR POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EFFECT THE FAN AND PARTS OF THE GRAND BANKS MONDAY. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT (SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER THE GRAND BANKS AND THE LAURENTIAN FAN AREA. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 METRES ARE POSSIBLE. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/FOGARTY/BORGEL