WOCN31 CWHX 020545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:41 AM ADT SUNDAY 2 OCTOBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT. HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD - EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AS A POST-TROPICAL STORM. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 AM ADT. LOCATION: NEAR 35.2 NORTH 62.0 WEST. ABOUT 400 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 220 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 48 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FO THE AVALON PENINSULA. RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS MORNING. OPHELIA STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY-FOUR STATUS SATURDAY EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TODAY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE AN UNRELATED NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AND GIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN FROM OPHELIA WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - RANGING FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND TO 200 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE AVALON. A. WIND. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE IS NOW ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA, HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW AT 5-10%. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA IN RELATION TO THE RAIN FROM THE FORE-MENTIONED NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S MOISTURE LATER TODAY AND INTO MONDAY GIVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 40 TO 60 MM WITH LOCALLY UP TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MILLIMETRES/HOUR. RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. C. SURGE/WAVES. WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ESTABLISHING DETAILS OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF WAVE HEIGHTS, BUT A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 METRES IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND - FORTUNE BAY AND EAST. OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE (10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS BUT A FARTHER-NORTH TRACK WOULD NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WATER LEVELS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARITIMES MARINE AREAS TO THE RIGHT OF OPHELIA'S TRACK. GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND BANKS AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. WHILE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY AN INTENSE HURRICANE ITS WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY COMPACT WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO ITS CENTER. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT (SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER LAURENTIAN FAN AND GRAND BANKS WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 METRES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END