FXCN31 CWHX 020600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 02 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 N AND LONGITUDE 62.0 W, ABOUT 215 NAUTICAL MILES OR 400 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS ( 222 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 940 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 26 KNOTS ( 48 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 3.00 AM 35.2N 62.0W 940 120 222 OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.5N 61.4W 946 110 204 OCT 02 3.00 PM 39.8N 60.3W 955 100 185 OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.2N 58.8W 965 85 157 OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.4N 56.1W 972 70 130 OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.3N 53.1W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.00 PM 47.9N 49.0W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.4N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 AM 50.5N 37.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENISTY ESTIMATES INCREASED IT TO CATEGORY 4 STATUS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. DESPITE THIS INTENSITY THE WIND CIRCULATION IS VERY COMPACT BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE LEAVING A WARM WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IT HAS BEEN FEEDING OFF OF AND VERY RECENT WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY ARE FINALLY HINTING THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH OPHELIA'S OUTFLOW AS WELL AS ACCELERATE IT NORTHWARD. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY - BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND HOW QUICKLY OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES OUT OF ITS CURRENT FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND). THE GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS VERY INTENSE COMPACT HURRICANE. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND A LONG FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF IT. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/06Z 150 150 110 80 45 50 40 40 25 25 20 20 02/12Z 180 180 100 80 45 50 40 35 30 30 20 20 02/18Z 180 180 100 75 60 60 50 30 30 30 20 20 03/00Z 180 180 100 70 60 60 50 25 30 30 20 20 03/06Z 160 190 130 80 75 70 45 20 15 20 0 0 03/12Z 140 200 160 60 60 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 170 220 160 70 50 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 180 240 170 80 45 55 35 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 170 240 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/BORGEL