WOCN31 CWHX 021145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:57 AM ADT SUNDAY
2 OCTOBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      HURRICANE OPHELIA BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST -
      EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AS A
      STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 37.5 NORTH 61.4 WEST.

ABOUT 645 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 205 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 46 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA. 
RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA - BRIEFLY A CATEGORY FOUR STORM SATURDAY EVENING - HAS 
FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL 
LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING.  AN UNRELATED NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM 
STRETCHING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE 
NORTHWARD TODAY AND GIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE 
MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAIN FROM OPHELIA WILL AFFECT 
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S 
TRACK - RANGING FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND TO 100 
KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE AVALON.

A. WIND.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THERE IS NOW ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA, HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED - AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING THIS 
AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING 
TO 90 KM/H.  CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA 
REMAINS LOW AT 5-10%.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 
RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 
RELATION TO THE RAIN FROM THE FORE-MENTIONED NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S 
MOISTURE LATER TODAY AND INTO MONDAY GIVING THE POSSIBILITY OF 
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL DIRECTLY 
FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING EARLY 
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 40 TO 60 MM WITH LOCALLY UP TO 75 
MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 
MILLIMETRES/HOUR.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. 
WE ARE STILL ESTABLISHING DETAILS OF WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF WAVE 
HEIGHTS, BUT A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 METRES IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND - FORTUNE BAY AND EAST. OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN 
TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. 
INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE 
(10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS 
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS.
THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS BUT A FARTHER-NORTH TRACK 
WOULD NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WATER LEVELS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
MARITIMES MARINE AREAS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF OPHELIA'S TRACK.
GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS AND PORTIONS 
OF THE GRAND BANKS AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. WHILE OPHELIA IS 
CURRENTLY AN INTENSE HURRICANE ITS WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY COMPACT 
WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO ITS CENTER.

LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT 
(SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN 
WATERS. GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER LAURENTIAN FAN AND 
GRAND BANKS WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 METRES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.


VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY