FXCN31 CWHX 021200 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 02 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 N AND LONGITUDE 61.4 W, ABOUT 345 NAUTICAL MILES OR 645 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS ( 204 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS ( 46 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.5N 61.4W 948 110 204 OCT 02 3.00 PM 39.8N 60.3W 957 95 176 OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.2N 58.8W 966 85 157 OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.4N 56.1W 974 75 139 OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.3N 53.1W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.00 PM 47.9N 49.0W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.4N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 AM 50.5N 37.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 9.00 AM 51.8N 30.4W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WHILE THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT ON IR IMAGERY IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED, WHILE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND SHRUNK IN DIAMETER. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. INITIAL INTENISTY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS AND LIKELY WON'T REMAIN THERE MUCH LONGER. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO LEAVE ITS WARM SST ENVIRONMENT AND WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO OPHELIA'S UPPERLEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS RESTRICT ITS OUTFLOW. AS EXPECTED IT HAS ALSO NOTICABLY STARTED TO DEFLECT THE STORM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY - BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND HOW QUICKLY OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND) MONDAY MORNING. GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS INTENSE COMPACT HURRICANE. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND A LONG FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF IT. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/12Z 180 180 100 80 45 50 40 35 30 30 20 20 02/18Z 180 180 100 75 60 60 50 30 30 30 20 20 03/00Z 180 180 100 70 60 60 50 25 30 30 20 20 03/06Z 160 190 130 80 75 70 45 20 15 20 0 0 03/12Z 140 200 160 60 60 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 170 220 160 70 50 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 180 240 170 80 45 55 35 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 170 240 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 160 240 190 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/BORGEL/FOGARTY/COUTURIER