WOCN31 CWHX 021745 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:53 PM ADT SUNDAY 2 OCTOBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT. HURRICANE OPHELIA BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST - EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: NEAR 39.9 NORTH 60.5 WEST. ABOUT 450 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 175 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING. A FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO SOUTH OF YARMOUTH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAIN FROM OPHELIA MAY REACH CAPE BRETON TONIGHT THEN AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - RANGING FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND TO 100 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF THE AVALON. A. WIND. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE IS ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA, HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW AT 5-10%. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THE FORE-MENTIONNED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MARITIMES COULD TAP IN TO SOME OF OPHELIA'S MOISTURE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY GIVING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ESPECIALLY CAPE BRETON. RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 40 TO 60 MILLIMETRES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MILLIMETRES/HOUR. C. SURGE/WAVES. WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY. A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 METRES IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND - FORTUNE BAY AND EAST. OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INCIDENT SWELL HEIGHT OF 3 METRES BREAKING IN THE 4-METRE (10-14-FOOT) RANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS BUT A FARTHER-NORTH TRACK WOULD NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN FORECAST WATER LEVELS. THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARITIMES MARINE AREAS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF OPHELIA'S TRACK. GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND BANKS AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. OPHELIA'S WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY COMPACT WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO ITS CENTER. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT (SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER LAURENTIAN FAN AND GRAND BANKS WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 METRES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY