FXCN31 CWHX 021800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1.05 PM ADT SUNDAY 02 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 N AND LONGITUDE 60.5 W , ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES OR 450 KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS ( 176 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 964 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS ( 50 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 3.00 PM 39.9N 60.5W 964 95 176 OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.2N 58.8W 969 80 148 OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.4N 56.1W 974 75 139 OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.3N 53.1W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.00 PM 47.9N 49.0W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.4N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 AM 50.5N 37.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 9.00 AM 51.8N 30.4W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 PM 53.1N 23.1W 996 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS BEGUN WEAKENING SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE EYE IS DISAPPEARING ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS DETECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK IS INDICATING A FEW STRIKES BETWWEEN THE STORM AND THE WATERS OF THE SCOTIAN SLOPE. INITIAL INTENISTY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO CATEGORY 2 STATUS AND LIKELY WON'T REMAIN THERE MUCH LONGER AS IT TRAVELS OVER RELATIVELY COLDER WATERS. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY TRAVELLING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COLDER. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS ABSORBING SOME OF OPHELIA'S UPPERLEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS RESTRICTING ITS OUTFLOW. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY - BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND HOW QUICKLY OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND) MONDAY MORNING. GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS COMPACT HURRICANE.THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF IT. THE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN SUITE OF MODELS, HOWEVER IT HAS CORRECTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THIS MORNING'S RUN. SHIPS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE VALUES (20+KT) TONIGHT, THIS ALONG WITH THE STORM TRAVELLING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 20 DEGREES WILL ACCENTUATE WEAKENING. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/18Z 180 180 90 90 60 60 50 30 30 30 20 20 03/00Z 180 180 100 80 80 60 50 25 30 30 20 20 03/06Z 160 190 130 80 75 70 45 20 15 20 0 0 03/12Z 170 220 160 80 60 70 50 20 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 170 220 160 80 50 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 180 240 170 80 45 55 35 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 170 240 180 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 160 240 220 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/18Z 150 240 240 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER