FXCN31 CWHX 030000 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.10 PM NDT SUNDAY 02 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 N AND LONGITUDE 58.8 W , ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS ( 148 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS ( 52 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 02 9.30 PM 43.3N 58.8W 970 80 148 OCT 03 3.30 AM 45.0N 56.3W 975 70 130 OCT 03 9.30 AM 46.6N 53.2W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 48.1N 49.1W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 49.4N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.30 AM 50.5N 37.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 9.30 AM 51.8N 30.4W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.30 PM 53.1N 23.1W 996 35 65 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 9.30 PM 54.4N 15.8W 998 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS BEGUN WEAKENING SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. HOWEVER THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A CLOSED BAND AROUND THE EYE WHICH IS ERODING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS INFILTRATED THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWED A FEW STRIKES NEAR THE STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO LOWER END CATEGORY 2 STATUS AND LIKELY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS IT TRAVELS OVER COOL 15 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST IS ABSORBING SOME OF OPHELIA'S UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS RESTRICTING ITS OUTFLOW. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND HOW QUICKLY OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING. GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS COMPACT HURRICANE. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS AND BOTH ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF IT. THE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN SUITE OF MODELS. IT HAS ALSO CORRECTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THIS MORNING'S RUN. SHIPS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE VALUES (20+KT) TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE STORM TRAVELLING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 15 DEGREES WILL ACCENTUATE WEAKENING. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 03/00Z 200 230 110 90 80 80 50 30 40 40 20 20 03/06Z 190 240 150 90 80 100 50 30 25 40 0 0 03/12Z 180 240 160 80 60 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 180 240 160 80 50 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 180 240 170 80 45 55 35 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 170 240 180 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 160 240 190 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/18Z 150 240 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER/MERCER/HATT