FXCN31 CWHX 030600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.26 AM NDT MONDAY 03 OCTOBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.2 N AND LONGITUDE 56.4 W , ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 285 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURGEO . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 03 3.30 AM 45.2N 56.4W 978 70 130 OCT 03 9.30 AM 46.6N 53.7W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 3.30 PM 48.3N 49.3W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.30 PM 49.7N 44.2W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.30 AM 51.5N 37.8W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATE LAST NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION BY ABOUT 60 NM. THE STORM IS ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WATER IN THE 13 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE, SO THE RAPID RATE OF DECAY IS CONTINUING. FINALLY, WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF OPHELIA. THE PRECIPITAION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH THE THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS STARTED MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 20 MM/HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SABLE ISLAND, WHICH PICKED UP 43 MM IN 2-3 HOURS. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND HOW QUICKLY OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. GEM REG MODEL IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS COMPACT HURRICANE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF MODEL OFFERS A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS AND IS INDICATING A FASTER TRACK. GFS AND NAM SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT LEAST IN THE LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF IT. THE AMOUNTS OVER SABLE ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL AMOUNTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PERFORM BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN SUITE OF MODELS. SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30 KTS INCREASING TO 40 BY THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE STORM TRAVELLING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15 DEGREES WILL ACCENTUATE WEAKENING. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 03/06Z 180 210 150 90 70 80 30 30 25 40 25 0 03/12Z 150 220 130 80 60 70 40 0 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 180 240 160 80 50 70 50 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 150 240 210 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 120 240 210 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/MERCER/HATT