WOCN31 CWHX 030545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:58 AM ADT MONDAY 3 OCTOBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6:00 AM ADT. FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT. OPHELIA HEADING FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ENDED FOR: NOVA SCOTIA. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: NEAR 45.2 NORTH 56.4 WEST. ABOUT 285 KILOMETRES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BURGEO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 130 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST AT 55 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO SOUTH OF YARMOUTH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAIN FROM OPHELIA IS MOVING AWAY FROM CAPE BRETON AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A TRACK THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH SOMETIME THIS MORNING. A FEW MODELS SHOW CLOSEST APPROACH NEAR NOON, BUT THEY ALSO SHOW WEAKER INTENSITY. A. WIND. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE IS ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA, HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H. CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H OR HIGHER) IN THIS AREA REMAINS LOW AT 10-20% MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE PROJECTED DEGREE OF WEAKENING AND THE FACT THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM OPHELIA HAS STARTED OVER SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS MONDAY MORNING. 40 TO 60 MILLIMETRES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MILLIMETRES/HOUR. C. SURGE/WAVES. WAVES WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. A RANGE OF 5 TO 8 METRES IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL. OCEAN SWELL IS IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. SWELL HEIGHTS OF 3 METRES WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 OR HIGHER AND WITH PERIODS OF 20 SECONDS WERE OBSERVED AT THE HALIFAX HARBOUR BUOY. AND SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 METRES HIGHER FURTHER EAST AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CAPE BRETON FOR THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY. WITH REGARD TO STORM SURGE, 40 TO 60 CM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. SINCE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO PASS THE AVALON THIS MORNING THIS SHOULD NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS, BUT A SLOWER STORM SPEED OR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD INCREASE SURGE LEVELS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BANQUEREAU. GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND BANKS AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. OPHELIA'S WINDFIELD IS RELATIVELY COMPACT WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO ITS CENTER BUT WILL EXPAND AWAY FROM STORM CENTRE ON THE SOUTH SIDE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE - ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT (SOUTHEAST) AND CLOSE TO OPHELIA'S TRACK AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE WAVES IS OVER LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE - EASTERN HALF AND THE WESTERN GRAND BANKS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 14 METRES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 20-22 METRES AT BUOYS 44141 AND 44139. BUOY 44137 ON THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE REACHED 7.3 PEAKING AT 12.1 METRES. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END