FXCN31 CWHX 031200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.46 AM ADT
MONDAY 03 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 46.8 N AND LONGITUDE 54.8 W , ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 80 KM SOUTHWEST OF ARGENTIA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS ( 111 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS ( 83 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 03  9.00 AM  46.8N  54.8W   980   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  3.00 PM  48.9N  48.8W   985   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 PM  49.9N  44.3W   990   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  3.00 AM  51.2N  37.7W   992   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  9.00 AM  52.6N  31.2W   994   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. LATE LAST NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY 
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION SHEARING 
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION BY ABOUT 60 NM. THE STORM

IS ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WATER IN THE 12 DEGREE RANGE, SO
THE RAPID RATE OF DECAY IS CONTINUING. FINALLY, WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY 
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF OPHELIA. 
THE PRECIPITAION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY AFTERNOON. 
RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 20 MM/HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SABLE 
ISLAND AND ST. LAWRENCE, WHICH PICKED UP 40-50 MM IN 2-3 HOURS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL IS
WELL UNDERWAY SO WE ARE DESIGNATING OPHELIA AS A POST-TROPICAL STORM 
AS OF 12UTC.

GEM REG MODEL IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIALISATION OF
THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THIS COMPACT HURRICANE AND IS SLOWER 
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF MODEL OFFERED A MUCH MORE 
REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS AND IS 
INDICATING A FASTER TRACK. SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS THIS
MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE STORM TRAVELLING OVER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 13 TO 15 DEGREES WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. 
WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND
CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
03/12Z  150 220 130  80    60  70  40   0     0   0   0   0
03/18Z  180 240 160  80    50  70  50   0     0   0   0   0
04/00Z  150 240 210  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
04/06Z  120 240 210  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
04/12Z   90 240 210   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MERCER/HATT/FOGARTY/COUTURIER