FXCN31 CWHX 031800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1.28 PM ADT
MONDAY 03 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , POST-TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 48.9 N AND LONGITUDE 48.8 W , ABOUT 175 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 325 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS ( 85 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
996 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 36 KNOTS ( 67 KM/H
).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 03  3.00 PM  48.9N  48.8W   996   45   93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 PM  50.0N  43.5W   997   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  3.00 AM  51.2N  37.8W   998   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHILE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA. BUOY 44251 RECORDED PEAK
WINDS OF 45 KNOTS HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM  FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE
REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LIKELY
FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITAION IS DETACHED FROM
THE STORM AND IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL WAVE OVER FUNK ISLAND
BANK WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORD OPHELIA. RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 20
MM/HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS BONAVISTA, AND ST.
LAWRENCE RECEIVED 50 MM IN 2-3 HOURS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL WAS WELL UNDERWAY AT THE TIME THE
GEM REG WAS INITIALISED THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY AND MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WELL HANDLED BY THE GEM REG MODEL THIS 
MORNING, AND THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. 
THE WAM MODEL HAS THE WAVE FIELD IN THE RIGHT AREA WITH RESPECT
TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM, BUT HAS NOT BEEN PREDICTING SIGNIFICANT 
WAVES ADEQUATELY. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN FROM THE WAVEWATCH-3 
MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
03/18Z  180 240 160  80     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
04/00Z  150 240 210  60     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
04/06Z  120 240 240  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER