FXCN31 CWHX 221200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.21 AM NDT
FRIDAY 22 JUNE 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.30 AM NDT, TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 N 
AND LONGITUDE 45.2 W, ABOUT 349 NAUTICAL MILES OR 647 KM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
45 KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 988 MB. CHRIS IS MOVING 
WEST AT 15 KNOTS (28 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUN 22  9.30 AM  44.8N  45.2W   988   45   83
JUN 22  3.30 PM  44.4N  45.8W   988   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 22  9.30 PM  43.7N  45.9W   988   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 23  3.30 AM  43.0N  45.5W   990   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUN 23  9.30 AM  42.5N  44.7W   991   40   74 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION
ABOUT THE CENTRE AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
NOT REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRE AS INDICATED BY CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE MOTION IS WNW AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE SW HAS
BEGUN AS SEEN ON WV AND IR IMAGERY.



B. PROGNOSTIC

CHRIS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GRAND BANKS TODAY. OVER
EASTERNMOST AREAS OF THE GRAND BANKS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 METERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN GRAND BANKS BY LATER TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS PASS BY
TO THE EAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING CHRIS ON THIS 
COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP GIVING A WESTWARD-MOST POSITION NEAR 46 DEGREES 
WEST LONGITUDE THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS LOOP OCCURS ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS CHRIS MERGING WITH THE OTHER LOW AND PULLING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.

UNTIL THIS MERGING IS COMPLETE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF CHRIS.




C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
22/12Z  120  90  30  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
22/18Z  110  30  30 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
23/00Z   90  90  90 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
23/06Z   60  60 120 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
23/12Z   60  60 120 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/HATT/FOGARTY