WOCN31 CWHX 061145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:59 AM ADT THURSDAY
6 SEPTEMBER 2012.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

      FOR HURRICANE LESLIE.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      GENERAL DISCUSSION REGARDING HURRICANE LESLIE AND POSSIBLE
      INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA.

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==DISCUSSION==
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE IS MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
HURRICANE LESLIE.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND 
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  COMPUTER MODELS ARE 
PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 250 KILOMETRES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. 
IN FACT, LESLIE WAS BASICALLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.  WITH SUCH A SLOW 
SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL IN ITS 
ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
PREDICTED PATH AND INTENSITY.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH 
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACCELERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A 
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS SPANNING NOVA SCOTIA, NEWFOUNDLAND, AND 
BYPASS OFFSHORE.  THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS CROSSES THROUGH 
NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT SEVERAL 
TIMES WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS.  IF LESLIE MAKES LANDFALL IN 
EASTERN CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS 'COLD-WATER UPWELLING' AND 'HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING' RESULTING FROM THE HURRICANE ITSELF THAT THE 
COMPUTER MODELS CAN SOMETIMES FAIL TO PREDICT.  IN FACT, THESE 
EFFECTS SEEM TO ALREADY BE AT PLAY AS OF EARLY TODAY.  THE RANGE OF 
SCENARIOS MAY BE EVEN BROADER THAN THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE NOW.

MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS DIRECTLY RELATED TO LESLIE WILL PERSIST 
ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND 
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IF NEAR THE WATER, EXERCISE 
CAUTION KNOWING THAT WAVE HEIGHTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER A SPAN 
OF SEVERAL MINUTES AND THAT RIP CURRENTS CAN DEVELOP AT LOCAL 
BEACHES.  INCIDENT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES (7 FEET) MAY BREAK AT 
THE SHORE AT HEIGHTS NEAR 3 METRES (10 FEET).

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING THESE GENERAL 
INFORMATION STATEMENTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MORE DETAILED TRACK 
FORECASTS LIKELY BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CATEGORY-THREE HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL EAST OF LESLIE WILL MOVE VERY 
SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN CANADA.

VISIT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER 
CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP.

END/FOGARTY