WOCN31 CWHX 090545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:48 AM ADT SUNDAY 9 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT. LESLIE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. LESLIE COULD IMPACT EASTERN ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE, WHICH AS OF 3:00 AM ADT WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS STILL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ARE HINTING AT SLIGHTLY FASTER ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. LESLIE'S WINDS REMAIN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR MONDAY AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE THREAT OF LESLIE DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE MARITIMES IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY, IT STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND THE THREAT OF SOME IMPACT IS MUCH GREATER WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF 40% FOR THE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONE OF THE KEY WEATHER FEATURES WHICH WILL CONTROL THE EVOLUTION OF LESLIE'S TRACK AND IMPACTS IS THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING ATLANTIC CANADA FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY AND MONDAY, AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND LATER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MAINLY ACCELERATE LESLIE NORTHEASTWARD THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE TROUGH COULD MERGE WITH THE STORM AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG IT. HOWEVER, ALL THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE. STAY TUNED TO OUR UPDATES FOR THE TREND IN THE TRACK AND DISCUSSIONS. MUCH SMALLER BUT MORE INTENSE HURRICANE MICHAEL ROUGHLY 1900 KILOMETRES EAST OF LESLIE, WILL ALSO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. LESLIE AND MICHAEL WILL DRAW CLOSER TO EACH OTHER LATER ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SINCE LESLIE IS MUCH LARGER, ITS POSSIBLE IMPACT ON MICHAEL WOULD LIKELY BE TO SHEAR-APART ITS UPPER CLOUDS AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM LESLIE. A TRUE MERGING OF THE HURRICANES IS NOT EXPECTED BASED ON THEIR DIFFERING SIZES. BUT EXPERIENCE WITH THIS SORT OF SITUATION IS LIMITED AND WE WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR IT. THE CONTRIBUTION FROM SEVERAL OF THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROPOSED TRACK HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK AND AFFECT EASTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND LARGE PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME MARINE WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS RELATED TO LESLIE WILL PERSIST ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL LESLIE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. IF NEAR THE WATER, EXERCISE CAUTION KNOWING THAT WAVE HEIGHTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER A SPAN OF SEVERAL MINUTES AND THAT RIP CURRENTS CAN DEVELOP AT LOCAL BEACHES. INCIDENT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 2 METRES (7 FEET) MAY BREAK AT THE SHORE AT HEIGHTS NEAR 3 METRES (10 FEET) THIS WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT HIGHER WAVES WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. MUCH LARGER WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND STARTING LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING LESLIE'S CLOSEST APPROACH. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING THESE GENERAL INFORMATION STATEMENTS AS WELL TRACK FORECASTS AND MORE DETAILED TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS LATER THIS MORNING. VISIT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END