WOCN31 CWHX 100545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:49 AM ADT SUNDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT. LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA - TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR TUESDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 AM ADT. LOCATION: 35.7 NORTH 61.3 WEST. ABOUT 485 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 28 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ON TUESDAY. WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS MORNING FOR TUESDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND MOST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL HAVE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA AS FOLLOWS: A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL ONLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LESLIE TO THE SOUTH. BETWEEN 30 AND 70 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIMES AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM THIS TROUGH WITH MORE EXPECTED TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MERGE WITH LESLIE TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINED SYSTEMS CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE ALREADY WARNED AREAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESLIE'S CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN NEWFOUNDLAND IS LOOKING ALMOST CERTAIN NOW. HOWEVER THE STORM'S EFFECTS WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH A CIRCULATION ABOUT 800 KILOMETRES IN DIAMETER SO DO NOT PUT MUCH FOCUS ON THE LINE ON THE TRACK MAP. MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. IT APPEARS THAT STORM WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION. A. WIND. LESLIE ALREADY HAS A LARGE WIND CIRCULATION AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE REGION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MARITIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THOSE AREAS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF LESLIE'S TRACK ON TUESDAY, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 80 GUSTING TO 120 KM/H ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H IN EXPOSED AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT GUSTS TO 90 OR 100 KM/H ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. IN NOVA SCOTIA THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE LESLIE/TROUGH SYSTEM WILL BE OVER CAPE BRETON WHERE GUSTS TO 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. NOTE THAT THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OCCURS BETWEEN LESLIE AND THE TROUGH. B. RAINFALL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MERGED FRONT/HURRICANE IS EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND. EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AREAS ALONG THE EXISTING TROUGH AND TO THE WEST OF LESLIE'S TRACK, WHICH FOR NOW WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALLS IN THIS RANGE COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES AND IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT RESIDENTS TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. WATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY LOW IN THE FORE-MENTIONED AREAS AFTER A DRY SEASON, BUT FLASH-TYPE FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN VULNERABLE AREAS. C. SURGE/WAVES. MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM ARRIVES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL BE SOME SURGE ACCOMPANYING LESLIE'S ARRIVAL DURING THE MORNING BUT THE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET BY COINCIDENT LOW TIDES IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER CANADIAN AND U.S. WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 METRES REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND SOME COASTAL EROSION IN EXPOSED OR VULNERABLE AREAS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS CLOSEST TO LESLIE'S TRACK. STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/CHC