WOCN31 CWHX 101145 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:51 AM ADT MONDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT. VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ENROUTE TO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS - HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT. LOCATION: 36.5 NORTH 60.6 WEST. ABOUT 590 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TOMORROW. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND MOST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL HAVE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA AS FOLLOWS: A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL ONLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LESLIE TO THE SOUTH. 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER POCKETS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA FROM THIS TROUGH WITH MORE EXPECTED TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH LESLIE TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINED SYSTEMS CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE ALREADY- WARNED AREAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF LESLIE'S CENTRE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN NEWFOUNDLAND IS LOOKING ALMOST CERTAIN NOW. HOWEVER THE STORM'S EFFECTS WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH A CIRCULATION ABOUT 800 KILOMETRES IN DIAMETER SO DO NOT PUT MUCH FOCUS ON THE LINE ON THE TRACK MAP. MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT STORM WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION AND THEN DISSIPATE EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS. A. WIND. LESLIE ALREADY HAS A LARGE WIND CIRCULATION AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE REGION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN AREAS 100 TO 300 KILOMETRES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 80 GUSTING TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT GUSTS TO 90 OR 100 KM/H ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN NOVA SCOTIA THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE MERGED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER CAPE BRETON WHERE GUSTS TO 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. B. RAINFALL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MERGED FRONT/LESLIE IS EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND. EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AREAS ALONG THE EXISTING TROUGH AND TO THE WEST OF LESLIE'S TRACK, WHICH FOR NOW WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAINFALLS IN THIS RANGE COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES AND IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT RESIDENTS TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. WATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY LOW IN THE FORE-MENTIONED AREAS AFTER A DRY SEASON, BUT FLASH-TYPE FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN VULNERABLE AREAS. C. SURGE/WAVES. MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM ARRIVES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL BE SOME SURGE ACCOMPANYING LESLIE'S ARRIVAL DURING THE MORNING BUT THE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET BY COINCIDENT LOW TIDES IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER CANADIAN AND U.S. WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10 METRES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF LESLIE'S TRACK AS IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS OF OF 6 TO 9 METRES COULD REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND SOME COASTAL EROSION IN EXPOSED OR VULNERABLE AREAS. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/FOGARTY/BORGEL