WOCN31 CWHX 101745 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:08 PM ADT MONDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT. VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ENROUTE TO ATLANTIC CANADA WITH WIDESPREAD DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS - HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT. LOCATION: 39.1 NORTH 59.6 WEST. ABOUT 780 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF SYDNEY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH NEAR 34 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TOMORROW. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND MOST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL HAVE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA AS FOLLOWS: A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL ONLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LESLIE TO THE SOUTH. 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM THIS TROUGH WITH MORE EXPECTED TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH LESLIE TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINED SYSTEMS CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE ALREADY-WARNED AREAS. LESLIE'S CENTRE WILL LIKELY BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE BURING PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE STORM'S EFFECTS WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH A CIRCULATION ABOUT 800 KILOMETRES IN DIAMETER SO DO NOT PUT MUCH FOCUS ON THE LINE ON THE TRACK MAP. MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT STORM WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION AND THEN DISSIPATE EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS. A. WIND. LESLIE ALREADY HAS A LARGE WIND CIRCULATION AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE REGION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN AREAS 100 TO 300 KILOMETRES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 80 GUSTING TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT GUSTS TO 90 OR 100 KM/H ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN NOVA SCOTIA THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE MERGED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER CAPE BRETON WHERE GUSTS TO 80 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. WIND IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREE DAMAGE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 100 KM/H. THIS MAY LEAD TO DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGES. B. RAINFALL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MERGED FRONT/LESLIE IS EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND NEWFOUNDLAND. EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AREAS ALONG THE EXISTING TROUGH AND TO THE WEST OF LESLIE'S TRACK, WHICH FOR NOW INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN THE PARTICULARLY HARD-HIT TRURO AREA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 10-20 MILLIMETRES IS FORECAST BUT IF THE FRONT BUMPS-BACK TO THE WEST EVEN JUST A FEW KILOMETERS, THAT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WE DO BELIEVE THE WORST RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THERE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY STREET FLOODING, PROPERTY EROSION AND ROAD WASHOUTS. HAZARDS FOR MOTORISTS INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HYDROPLANING, AND POSSIBLE COMPROMISED ROADBEDS AND BRIDGES. C. SURGE/WAVES. HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM ARRIVES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL BE SOME SURGE ACCOMPANYING LESLIE'S ARRIVAL DURING THE MORNING BUT THE IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET BY COINCIDENT LOW TIDES IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,CANADIAN AND U.S. WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES OF ABOUT 3-5 METRES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES OF 4-7 METRES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND INCREASING TO 8-12 METRES FOR THE PLACENTIA BAY AREA THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 METRES EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. THESE HEAVY POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND SOME COASTAL EROSION IN EXPOSED OR VULNERABLE AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE IN PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN PENINSULA REGION IF LESLIE ACCELERATES TONIGHT TO REACH NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT OR VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING AT HIGH TIDE (ABOUT 6 AM LOCAL TIME). 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE. COASTAL IMPACTS INCLUDE POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND WAVE OVERWASH IN PRONE AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AVALON, PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN PENINSULA. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY/MERCER